MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/21)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Kansas City Royals opened as -113 home favorites against the Tampa Bay Rays. The line shifted slightly toward Tampa Bay throughout the day, as Kansas City is now a -109 favorite. The game total opened at 8 runs, dropping to 7.5. The Rays team total dipped from 4.1 to 3.9, while the Royals decreased from 4.2 to 3.9.
Kansas City’s performed well early this season, covering the run line in 56.2% of their games. Tampa Bay hasn’t found as much success, covering in only 44.4% of their games thus far. The Royals boast similar success at home, where they own a 7-5 run line record. Surprisingly, the Rays have been better on the road, posting a 6-5 run line record this season.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Tampa Bay’s hit the over in a league-high 66.7% of their games, while Kansas City’s found the under in 66.7% of theirs. The Royals have found more offensive success at home, where they own a 5-6-1 over/under record. The Rays boast a league-high 8-3 road over/under record in 2021.
This game features a few above-average bets, although no elite ones. Randy Arozarena owns a Vegas total of 0.5 hits with plenty of juice on the over. He boasts a Karma Projection of 1.1 hits tonight. Overall, the over owns a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Arozarena’s seen mixed results this season, hitting for a .269 average through 16 games. He owns 18 hits in those games, as well. He’s also been better on the road, where he boasts a .289 average this season.
Arozarena gets a tough matchup against Jakob Junis, who looks like a new pitcher this season. With that being said, Junis has struggled throughout his career against either side of the plate. He’s also struggled in Kansas City, and Arozarena grades out as our Prop Predictors favorite bet in this grade.
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