NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/21)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Toronto Raptors opened as 2.5 point home favorites against the Brooklyn Nets tonight. The lines moved 1.5 points toward Toronto, as they’re now 4 point favorites. The game total opened at 227.5 points, increasing to 230 throughout the day. The Nets team total moved from 112.5 to 113, while the Raptors jumped from 115 to 117.
Neither team’s been overly successful against the spread (ATS) this season. Brooklyn’s covered in 50% of their games, while Toronto’s covered in 43.1% of theirs. The Raptors are similar at home, where they own a 13-16 ATS record. The Nets are better on the road, recording a 15-13 road ATS record.
Both teams lean toward the over. Brooklyn’s hit the over in 60.3% of their games with Toronto finding it in 55.2% of theirs. The Raptors found the under more often than not at home, though, where they own a 14-15 over/under record. The Nets boast an 18-10 road over/under record this season.
This game features a few great bets with one sticking out above the rest. Landry Shamet’s assist total is set at 2.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 3.1, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Shamet’s averaging 1.4 assists in 21.2 minutes per game through 47 contests this season. He’s averaging 3.7 assists in 29.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days, though. Overall, he’s posted 3+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games.
Shamet’s locked into bigger minutes with James Harden out. He’s taken on a larger role in the offense in recent games, and his Vegas total doesn’t fully represent that. It isn’t surprising the over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet in this game.
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