MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/22)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New York Mets opened as -132 road favorites against the Chicago Cubs. The line shifted toward Chicago throughout the day, as New York is currently only a -115 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs but increased to 9.5 throughout the day. The Mets team total stalled at 5.1 runs, while the Cubs total increased from 4.2 to 4.8.
Neither team’s found success in terms of the run line this season. New York’s covered the run line in a league-low 23.1% of their games, while Chicago’s covered in only 41.2% of theirs. The Cubs have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 5-6 run line record early this season. The Mets own a 1-7 road run line record, which is the worst in the MLB.
New York’s a neutral team in terms of the total, finding the over in 50% of their games this season. Chicago leans more toward the under, hitting it in 60% of their contests. The Cubs enter this game with a 4-7 home over/under record, as well. Surprisingly, the Mets boast a 5-2-1 over/under record on the road this season.
There are a few solid props in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Joey Lucchesi features a Vegas total of 4.5 strikeouts tonight. He boasts a 5.75 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Lucchesi’s struggled early in the season. He’s only thrown 5 innings over 2 games, although he owns 6 strikeouts. Lucchesi hasn’t thrown more than 55 pitches in a game, but he’s expected to be stretched out more tonight.
He gets a plus matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who strike out at one of the highest rates on this slate. Lucchesi boasts 28.6% strikeout and 13.2% swinging-strike rates this season. If he can throw deeper into this game and hold his strikeout rate, the over makes an outstanding bet.
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