NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/22)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New Orleans Pelicans opened as 7.5 point road favorites against the Orlando Magic. The line shifted 1 point toward New Orleans, as they are now 8.5 point favorites. The game total dipped from 223.5 points to 221 throughout the day. Overall, the Pelicans team total dropped from 115.5 to 114.75, while the Magic decreased from 108 to 106.25.
Both teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. New Orleans has covered in only 43.1% of their games, while Orlando’s covered in 49.1% of theirs. The Magic own similar struggles at home, where they possess a 14-15-1 ATS record. The Pelicans are one of the worst teams in the NBA, recording an 11-16 road ATS record.
New Orleans has hit the over in 65.5% of their games, which leads the league. Orlando, on the other hand, has found the over in 50.9% of their contests. The Magic have been neutral at home, though, where they own a 15-15 over/under record. The Pelicans have found the over quite as much on the road, possessing a 15-12 over/under record this season.
According to our Prop Predictor, there are two elite prop bets in this game. Lonzo Ball’s rebounding total is set at 3.5 tonight. He boasts a 4.4 Karma Projection, though, and the difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Ball’s averaging 4.2 rebounds in 31.1 minutes per game through 44 contests this season. He’s also averaging 4.3 rebounds in only 24.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s posted 4+ rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games.
Ball’s expected to be locked into minutes in the high-20s tonight. He’s a versatile guard that consistently has found success rebounding the ball throughout his career. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves this bet.
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