MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/23)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Oakland A’s opened as -137 road favorites against the Baltimore Orioles. The line shifted slightly toward Baltimore throughout the day, as Oakland is now only a -130 favorite. The game total opened at 9.5 runs and hasn’t shifted. The A’s team total dipped from 5.5 to 5.4, while the Orioles increased from 4.4 to 4.5.
Oakland’s found success in terms of the run line this season. They’ve covered it in 52.6% of their games thus far. Baltimore’s covered in only 38.9% of their contests. The Orioles have looked awful at home, though, where they own an 0-7 run line record. The A’s have been at their best on the road, where they own a 4-1 run line record thus far.
Oakland’s found the over more often than not, hitting it in 57.9% of their games. Baltimore’s been the opposite, finding the under in 55.6% of their contests. The Orioles lean toward the over at home, though, as they boast a 5-2 home over/under record this season. The A’s enter this game with a 3-2 road over/under record.
This game features a few above-average props, according to our Prop Predictor. Jorge Lopez’s strikeout total is set at only 3.5, although there’s quite a bit of juice on the over. He boasts a Karma Projection of 4.68, though, giving the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Lopez has seen mixed results this season. Through 3 starts, he’s posted 17 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. Overall, he’s recorded 4+ strikeouts in each of his starts without topping out at more than 75 pitches.
Lopez can take advantage of the matchup against Oakland. They strike out at one of the higher rates on this slate. Lopez isn’t known as a dominant strikeout pitcher, but this total is set far too low for this matchup.
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