MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/24)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Chicago White Sox opened at -165 home favorites against the Texas Rangers tonight. The lines only shifted slightly, as they are now -167 favorites. The game total opened at 7.5 runs, increasing to 8 throughout the day. The Rangers team total moved from 3.1 to 3.3, while the White Sox jumped from 4.7 to 5.
Neither of these teams has found much run line success this season. Texas’ covered in 50% of their games, while Chicago’s covered in only 42.1% of theirs. The White Sox have also struggled at home, where they own a 3-4 run line record this season. The Rangers have been significantly better on the road, possessing a 7-4 run line record.
Both teams lean slightly toward the under in their games. Each of these teams has hit the under in 52.6% of their games this season. Chicago boasts a 2-5 over/under record at home, as well. Texas is the opposite on the road, posting a 7-3-1 over/under record on the road, which is one of the highest road over percentages in the MLB thus far.
This game offers one prop that stands above the rest, per our Prop Predictor. Tim Anderson’s hit total is set at 0.5 with juice on the over. He boasts a Karma Projection of 1.26, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Anderson’s hitting .349 on the season. He boasts 15 hits in only 10 games thus far. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 9 of his last 10 games, including 4 multi-hit games over that span.
Anderson gets a tough matchup against Kyle Gibson tonight. Gibson’s thrown extremely well this season and possesses solid advanced metrics throughout his career. Still, Anderson is leading off for the White Sox, and he’s a relatively matchup-proof option.
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