Joey's NBA Prop Bets Tuesday 04/27/21
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my prop bets. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite prop bet of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets, make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
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Season: 98-94 +6.17 Units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
Malcolm Brogdon (-130) Over 23.5 Points 1.30 units to win 1 unit: Brogdan has had to step up in the absence of a couple of starters for the Pacers, but mainly Domatas Sabonis. In four games this season, he is averaging 24.25 points on 34.25 minutes per game. This includes two blowout games, where one game he did not play in the fourth quarter and the other game he did not finish the final four minutes. This should put Brogdan at his normal 36-40 minutes tonight in a close game against the Trail Blazers. Brogdon has 21+ field goal attempts in all but the games that blew out. To compare this to his season averages, he only has seven games where he shot 21+ FGAs.
The matchup is great for Brogdan as well. The Trail Blazers rank second to last with a 116.1 defensive rating. Meaning they allow 116.1 points per 100 possession on average. The tougher part is the Blazers rank 20th in pace, while the Pacers surprisingly rank 5th in pace. So if the Pacers can control pace tonight it will be even better for him. With Sabonis out, they have played at the second-highest pace if spread out across the whole season at 103 possessions a game. The bright side is the Trail Blazers will be happy to match pace tonight as we have seen all season. Look for a game a high-scoring game tonight with little defense. 5.5 point spread and the highest total on the slate should make for plenty of scoring opportunities for Brogdan tonight.