NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/27)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Minnesota Wolves opened as -1.5 point road favorites against the Houston Rockets. The line shifted slightly toward Minnesota, as they are now -2 point favorites. The game total opened at 229.5 points, increasing to 234.5 throughout the day. The Wolves team total jumped from 115.5 to 118.25, while the Rockets moved from 114 to 116.25.
Both of these teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. Minnesota’s covered in 47.5% of their games, while Houston’s covered in a league-low 34.4% of theirs. The Rockets have also struggled at home, where they own a league-worst 7-23 ATS record. The Wolves haven’t found much success on the road, as they possess a 13-16-3 road ATS record this season.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Minnesota’s hit the over in 51.6% of their contests, while Houston’s found the under in 56.7% of theirs. The Rockets continue that trend at home, where they’ve recorded a 9-20-1 over/under record. The Wolves lean toward the over on the road, posting an 18-14 over/under record outside of Minnesota this season.
This game features several good prop bets, according to our Prop Predictor. D’Angelo Russell’s point total is set at 21.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 17.3, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Russell’s averaging 19.5 points in 27.5 minutes per game through 32 contests this season. He’s averaging 19.2 points in 26.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Overall, he’s posted fewer than 22 points in 5 of his last 8 games.
Russell’s been heating up in bigger minutes recently. He’s expected to play roughly 30 minutes tonight, and Houston could look to limit the scoring in this game. Russell has plenty of scoring potential, but our Prop Predictor loves the under for this bet.
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