MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/28)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Atlanta Braves opened as -129 home favorites against the Chicago Cubs today. The line shifted slightly toward Atlanta, as they are now -136 favorites. The game total opened at 9 runs, decreasing to 8.5 throughout the day. The Cubs team total dipped from 4.3 to 3.9, while the Braves dropped from 5.1 to 4.9.
Both of these teams have struggled to hit the run line this season. Chicago’s covered it in 43.5% of their games, while Atlanta’s covered it in only 34.8% of theirs. The Braves have been even worse at home, where they own a 2-10 run line record this season. The Cubs have struggled in limited road games, though, possessing a 3-5 road run line record thus far.
These teams have been opposites in terms of the game total. Chicago’s hit the under in 61.9% of their games this season, while Atlanta’s found the over in 59.1% of theirs. The Braves also boast a 9-2-1 over/under record at home. The Cubs do own a 3-3-2 over/under record on the road in 2021.
The game offers a few solid bets with one sticking out above the rest, according to our Prop Predictor. Kyle Hendricks’ strikeout total is set at 4.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 5.45, giving the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Hendricks has seen mixed results this season. He owns 20.9% strikeout and 8.6% swinging-strike rates this season. Through 4 games, Hendricks has recorded 18 strikeouts over 19 innings. He’s posted 5+ strikeouts in 2 of his 4 games this season.
Hendricks gets an interesting matchup against Atlanta. They boast an explosive offense, but they also strike out at one of the highest rates on the slate. This is certainly a matchup Hendricks can take advantage of and our Prop Predictor believes he will.
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