MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/29)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Atlanta Braves opened as -150 home favorites against the Chicago Cubs. The lines shifted toward Chicago throughout the day, as Atlanta is now only a -132 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Cubs team total increased from 3.9 to 4.2, while the Braves decreased from 5.4 to 5.1.
These are two bottom-seven teams in the MLB in terms of the run line. Chicago’s covered the run line in 41.7% of their games, while Atlanta’s covered in only 37.5% of theirs. The Braves have struggled at home, where they own a 3-10 run line record. The Cubs haven’t found success on the road, though, where they’ve posted a 3-6 run line record thus far.
Atlanta’s hit the over at one of the highest rates (60.9%) in the MLB this season. Chicago leans toward the under, finding it in 59.1% of their games. The Braves have consistently found the over at home, as well, where they boast a 10-2-1 over/under record. The Cubs do boast a 4-3-2 over/under record on the road this season.
This game features a few solid bets, per our Prop Predictor. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s hit total is set at 0.5 with wide odds on the over. His Karma Projection is 1.07, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Acuna’s looked elite early this season, hitting for a .350 average. He’s also hitting .383 at home in 2021. Acuna’s recorded 28 hits through 22 games thus far. Surprisingly, he only owns a hit in 5 of his last 10 games.
Acuna gets a matchup against Adbert Alzolay tonight. Alzolay’s thrown well thus far, but he’s only pitched against a depleted Milwaukee Brewers offense. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves Acuna tonight.
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