MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/30)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Angels opened at -150 road favorites against the Seattle Mariners. The line hasn’t shifted much, as they are now -148 favorites. The game total opened at 8 runs, dropping to 7.5 throughout the day. The Angels team total decreased from 4.8 to 4.5, while the Mariners dipped from 3.5 to 3.3.
Seattle’s been the best team in the MLB at covering the run line. They’ve covered in a league-high 69.2% of their games thus far. Los Angeles hasn’t found as much success, covering in only 47.8% of their contests. The Angels have been neutral at home, recording a 5-5 run line record. The Mariners haven’t been quite as successful on the road, posting a 10-5 road run line record in 2021.
Both of these teams have found the over more often than not. Los Angeles has hit the over in 56.5% of their games, while Seattle’s found it in 52% of their contests. The Angels boast a 6-4 over/under record at home this season. The Mariners enter this game with an 8-7 road over/under record.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. One stands above the rest, though. Chris Flexen’s strikeout total is set at 3.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 4.81, though, and the difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Flexen’s thrown at a surprisingly high level for Seattle this season. He owns 21.6% strikeout and 8.5% swinging-strike rates in 2021. Through 4 starts, Flexen’s posted 21 strikeouts over 23 innings. He’s recorded 4+ strikeouts in 3 of his 4 games, as well.
This matchup is less than ideal for Flexen, as Los Angeles strikes out at one of the lowest rates on the slate. With that being said, this total is a bit low for Flexen’s early success. Our Prop Predictor’s siding with the juice on the over for Flexen’s strikeouts.
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