NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/30)
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NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/30)

Justin Bales

The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook


In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 


Orlando Magic vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies opened as 10.5 point home favorites against the Orlando Magic. The lines shifted 2.5 points toward Memphis, as they are now 13 point favorites. The game total opened at 225 points, dropping to 224 throughout the day. The Magic team total dropped from 107.25 to 105.5, while the Grizzlies increased from 117.75 to 118.5. 


Memphis has been one of the best teams against the spread (ATS) in the NBA this season. They’ve covered in 62.3% of their games thus far, while Orlando’s covered in only 48.3% of theirs. The Grizzlies have found ATS success at home, where they own an 18-12 record this season. The Magic have performed surprisingly well on the road, posting a 15-14 road ATS record. 


Both teams have found the over more often than not in their games this season. Orlando’s hit the over in 54.1% of their games, while Memphis’ found the over in 52.5% of theirs. The Grizzlies have consistently found the under in their home games, recording a 12-18 home over/under record this season. The Magic enter this game with a 15-13-1 over/under record on the road. 


This game features a plethora of solid bets, according to our Prop Predictor. Wendell Carter Jr.’s assist total is set at 1.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 2.2, though. Overall, the over boasts an A+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here


Carter’s averaging 2.0 assists in 25.3 minutes per game through 48 contests this season. He’s only averaging 0.8 assists in 24.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days, though. He’s posted 2+ assists in 4 of his last 9 games, although he’s seen limited minutes at times. 


Carter gets a plus matchup against Memphis tonight. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-20s tonight. Although risky, our Prop Predictor loves the over for this prop. 

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