MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/3)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The San Diego Padres opened as -175 home favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The lines shifted slightly toward San Diego, as they are now -186 favorites. The game total opened at 9 runs, dropping a full run to 8 throughout the day. The Pirates team total decreased from 3.7 to 3.1, while the Padres team total moved from 5.7 to 5.2.
San Diego’s found some run line success this season, covering in 51.7% of their games thus far. Pittsburgh hasn’t found as much success, covering in only 44.4% of their contests. The Padres have quietly been one of the worst teams in the MLB at home in terms of the run line, posting a 5-11 home run line record. The Pirates have been significantly better on the road, where they own an 8-7 run line record.
Pittsburgh’s found the over more often than not, hitting it in 52% of their games this season. San Diego’s found the under in 58.6% of their contests thus far. The Padres have one of the highest under rates in the MLB at home this season, posting a 4-12 over/under record. The Pirates have also found the under more often than not on the road, recording a 6-8-1 over/under record in those contests.
Our Prop Predictor likes a few bets in this game. Tyler Anderson’s strikeout rate is set at 5.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 4.68, though, giving the under an A- Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Anderson’s found quite a bit of success for Pittsburgh this season. He’s recorded 23.6% strikeout and 14% swinging-strike rates. Anderson’s quietly posted 26 strikeouts over 26.2 innings through 5 games. He’s recorded fewer than 6 strikeouts in 3 of his 5 games, as well.
Anderson gets a tough matchup against the San Diego Padres, who strike out at one of the lowest rates on the slate against left-handed pitching. They boast elite upside against lefties, making it easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under.
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