MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/4)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Seattle Mariners opened as -134 home favorites against the Baltimore Orioles. The line hasn’t shifted much, as Seattle is now a -136 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs but hasn’t moved thus far. The Orioles own an implied team total of 4 runs, while the Mariners boast an implied team total of 4.9 runs.
Seattle’s been one of the best teams in the MLB in terms of the run line this season. They’ve covered the run line in 66.7% of their games this season. Baltimore hasn’t found as much success, covering in only 44.8% of their contests. The Mariners also own a 10-5 home run line record, while the Orioles boast a 10-5 run line record on the road.
Seattle’s relatively neutral in terms of the game total, hitting the over in 51.7% of their games. Baltimore’s found the under significantly more often, hitting it in 60.7% of their contests. Continuing the neutral trend, the Mariners own a 7-7-1 over/under record at home. The Orioles enter this game with a 5-10 road over/under record this season.
This game features one elite bet, according to our Prop Predictor. Justin Dunn’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 4.26, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Dunn’s performed well early this season, but he’s due for quite a bit of regression. He brings 18.2% strikeout and 8.1% swinging-strike rates into this game. Dunn’s posted only 16 strikeouts through 20.1 innings over 4 starts this season. He’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in only one of his four games.
Dunn gets a matchup against Baltimore, who strikes out at a high rate. With that being said, he isn’t a strikeout pitcher and generally doesn’t throw deep into games. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under in this game.
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