NBA Trends and Line Movement (5/4)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New Orleans Pelicans opened as 1 point home favorites against the Golden State Warriors. The lines shifted 0.5 points toward New Orleans, as they are now 1.5 point favorites. The game total opened at 234.5 points and hasn’t moved throughout the day. The Warriors team total decreased from 116.75 to 116.5, while the Pelicans team total increased from 117.75 to 118.
Both of these teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. New Orleans has covered in 46.2% of their games, while Golden State’s covered in 47.7% of theirs. The Pelicans have been slightly worse at home, where they own a 15-19 ATS record. The Warriors are one of the worst road teams in the league, posting a 14-21 road ATS record.
These teams are opposites in terms of the total. New Orleans has hit the over in 61.5% of their games, while Golden State’s found the under in 60% of their contests. The Pelicans lead the NBA with a 23-11 home over/under record this season. The Warriors enter this game with a 13-22 road over/under record, though.
This game features a couple of solid bets with one sticking out to our Prop Predictor. Zion Williamson’s assist total is set at 4.5. He owns a 3.7 Karma Projection, though, giving the under an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Williamson is averaging 3.7 assists in 33.1 minutes per game through 60 contests. He’s also averaging 3.7 assists in 35.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s posted 4 or fewer assists in 6 of his last 10 games, as well.
Williamson gets an interesting matchup against Golden State, who he posted only 1 assist against in 36.5 minutes in their only matchup. He could find similar struggles because of their inability to guard him, making the under our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game.
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