MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/5)
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MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/5)

Justin Bales
05-05-2021

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies



The Milwaukee Brewers opened as -136 road favorites against the Philadelphia Phillies. The line hasn’t moved thus far. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 7.5 throughout the day. The Brewers team total dipped from 4.9 to 4.3, while the Phillies moved from 3.9 to 3.5. 

 

Milwaukee’s found success in terms of the run line this season. They’ve covered it in 60% of their games thus far. Philadelphia hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 43.3% of their contests. The Phillies have also struggled at home, where they own a 7-10 run line record. The Brewers have been the best road team in the MLB, posting an 11-3 road run line record this season. 

 

These teams are opposites in terms of the total. Milwaukee’s hit the under in 53.6% of their games, while Philadelphia’s found the over in 56.7% of their games. The Phillies enter this game with a 10-7 home over/under record this season. The Brewers have recorded a 4-10 road over/under record. 

 

This game offers a few solid bets, according to our Prop Predictor. Kolten Wong’s hit total is set at 0.5 with quite a bit of juice on the over. He owns a Karma Projection of 1.04, giving the over a B Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here

 

Wong’s played well this season, posting a .306 average through 19 games. He’s also hitting .343 over the last 10 days. Overall, Wong owns 19 hits in his 19 games this season. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 8 of his last 10 games, as well. 

 

Wong gets a plus matchup against Chase Anderson, who’s struggled through 5 starts. Anderson’s only allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .224 average this season, but he’s due for quite a bit of regression against lefties. Although the odds are wide, this is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game. 


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