MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/6)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Boston Red Sox opened as -220 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers. The line shifted slightly toward Detroit and Boston is now a -210 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t moved yet. The Tigers team total increased from 3 to 3.1, while the Red Sox is stuck at 5.8.
Boston’s found quite a bit of success in terms of the run line, covering in 61.3% of their games. Detroit hasn’t been as successful, covering in only 38.7% of their contests. The Red Sox have surprisingly struggled at home, where they own a 9-9 run line record. With that being said, the Tigers have recorded a 6-12 road run line record this season.
Boston’s been relatively neutral in terms of the game total. They’ve hit the over in 51.6% of their games. Detroit leans towards the under, finding it in 60% of their contests thus far. At home, the Red Sox own an 11-7 over/under record. The Tigers enter this game with a 9-9 road over/under record.
This game has a few solid props with one standing above the rest, according to our Prop Predictor. Xander Bogaerts’ hit total is set at 0.5 with a significant amount of juice on the over. He owns a Karma Projection of 1.21, though, giving the over a B+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bogaerts is hitting for a .348 average through 29 games this season. He’s also hitting for a .362 average in Boston. Bogaerts boasts 40 hits in his 19 games. He also owns at least 1 hit in 8 of his last 10 games, including a current 5 game hit streak.
Bogaerts gets a great matchup against Spencer Turnbull, who’s struggled this season. Furthermore, Detroit features one of the worst bullpens in the MLB, giving Bogaerts an edge throughout the game. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor likes the over.
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