The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Oakland A’s opened as -148 home favorites against the Tampa Bay Rays. The line shifted toward Tampa Bay thus far, as Oakland is now a -134 favorite. The game total opened at 8 runs, dropping to 7.5 throughout the day. The Rays team total held solid at 3.5, while the A’s dipped from 4.8 to 4.3.
Tampa Bay’s found more success in terms of the run line this season, covering in 54.5% of their games. Oakland’s only covered in 48.5% of theirs thus far. The A’s have been worse at home, where they own an 8-13 run line record. The Rays have traveled well, posting an 11-5 run line record on the road this season.
Both teams have found the over more often than not this season. Tampa Bay’s hit it in 57.6% of their games, while Oakland’s found it in 53.1% of theirs. The A’s also boast a 13-8 over/under record at home in 2021. The Rays enter this game with a league-best 12-4 road over/under record.
There are a few bets that our Prop Predictor likes in this game with one standing above the rest. Sean Manaea’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of only 5.11, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Manaea’s thrown well through 6 games in 2021. He boasts 23.7% strikeout and 12% swinging-strike rates this season. Overall, Manaea’s posted 33 strikeouts over 33.2 innings. He’s posted fewer than 7 strikeouts in 4 of his 6 starts.
The key to this bet is in the matchup, though. Tampa Bay is expected to feature plenty of right-handed batters throughout their lineup. Manaea boasts a 36.4% strikeout rate against left-handed batters, but that drops to only 19.8% against righties. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under.
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