MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/10)
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MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/10)

Justin Bales

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook


In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 


Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles

The Boston Red Sox opened as -148 road favorites against the Baltimore Orioles. The line shifted slightly toward Baltimore, as Boston is now a -141 favorite. The game total opened at 9, staying steady throughout the day. Ultimately, the Red Sox team total dropped from 5.4 to 5.3, while the Orioles increased from 4.0 to 4.1. 


Boston is one of the best teams in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering in 62.9% of their games. Baltimore hasn’t found nearly as much success, covering in only 44.1% of their contests. The Orioles also feature the worst run line record in the MLB at home, as it currently sits at 4-13. The Red Sox, on the other hand, boast the best road run line record in the MLB at 12-4. 


Boston’s relatively neutral in terms of the game total, finding the over in 51.4% of their games. Baltimore leans heavily toward the under, hitting it in 63.6% of their contests. The Orioles do own a 7-9-1 over/under record at home this season. The Red Sox bats haven’t traveled well, as they possess a 6-10 road over/under record. 


This game features a few props that our Prop Predictor likes tonight. Alex Verdugo’s hit total is set at 0.5 with plenty of juice on the over. Still, he boasts a 1.19 Karma Projection, giving the over a B+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here


Verdugo’s found quite a bit of success this season, hitting for a .306 average. He’s only hitting .273 over his last 10 games, though. Overall, Verdugo boasts 38 hits in 32 games this season. He’s posted at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games, as well. 


Verdugo gets a plus matchup against Jorge Lopez. Lopez is allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .229 average this season, although he’s due for regression against that side of the plate. He’s also given up a .327 average in Baltimore thus far, making Verdugo a top option for Boston. 

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