MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/11)
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MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/11)

Justin Bales
05-11-2021

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays



The New York Yankees opened as -132 road favorites against the Tampa Bay Rays. The line shifted slightly toward Tampa Bay throughout the day, as New York is now a -125 favorite. The game total opened at 8 runs, staying at that total thus far. The Yankees team total dipped from 4.6 to 4.4, while the Rays increased from 3.8 to 3.9. 

 

Tampa Bay’s found success in terms of the run line this season, covering in 55.6% of their games. New York hasn’t been as good, covering in only 44.1% of their contests. Surprisingly, the Rays have struggled at home, where they own a 7-10 run line record this season. With that being said, the Yankees enter this game with a 6-8 road run line record. 

 

These teams are opposites in terms of the total, as well. Tampa Bay’s hit the over in 55.6% of their games, while New York’s found the under in 60.6% of theirs. Oddly enough, the Rays bring a 7-10 home over/under record into this game. Continuing the under trend, the Yankees boast a 5-9 road over/under record this season. 

 

This game features a few solid props with one standing above the rest, according to our Prop Predictor. Jordan Montgomery’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 tonight. He owns a 5.01 Karma Projection, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here

 

Montgomery’s strikeout rate dipped to 21.2% early this season. Overall, he owns 28 strikeouts through 32.2 innings over 6 starts. He’s posted fewer than 7 strikeouts in 4 of those 6 starts, as well. 

 

Montgomery gets another matchup against Tampa Bay, who he’s seen mixed results against this season. He posted 7 and 4 strikeouts against them over 11 innings in 2 starts. Most importantly for this matchup, Montgomery owns a 15.4% road strikeout rate. His strikeout rate also dips to 18% against right-handed batters this season. Tampa Bay is expected to use a right-handed heavy lineup, making it easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under tonight. 


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