MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/12)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened as -265 home favorites against the Seattle Mariners. The line shifted toward Seattle, as Los Angeles is now a -250 favorite. The game total opened at 8 runs, holding steady thus far. Overall, the Mariners own a team total of 2.5, while the Dodgers team total dipped from 5.8 to 5.7.
Seattle’s been the best team in the MLB in terms of the run line. They’ve covered in a league-high 63.9% of their games. Los Angeles hasn’t been nearly as successful, covering in only 41.7% of their contests. The Dodgers have been better at home, where they own a 7-7 run-line record. The Mariners enter this game with a 12-7 road runline record, though.
Both teams have found the over more often than not this season. Los Angeles’ hit it in 55.6% of their games, while Seattle’s found it in 54.3% of theirs. At home, the Dodgers own a 9-5 over/under record this season. The Mariners bring a 12-7 road over/under record into this game, as well.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. One bet stands above the rest, though. Julio Urias’ strikeout total is set at 7.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 5.83, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Urias has performed well early this season, recording 27.2% strikeout and 13.6% swinging-strike rates. He’s recorded 46 strikeouts in 42.2 innings over 7 starts. Even with the success, he’s posted 7 or fewer strikeouts in 5 of those 7 games.
Urias gets a matchup against Seattle, who strikes out at a high rate this season. With that being said, they feature a plethora of right-handed throughout their lineup, and Urias’ strikeout rate dips to 25.2% against righties this season. It’s an interesting matchup, and our Prop Predictor loves the under tonight.
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