NBA Trends and Line Movement (5/12)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Brooklyn Nets opened as 4.5 point home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs. The line shifted 1 point toward Brooklyn, as they are now 5.5 point favorites. The game total opened at 234 points, dropping to 233 throughout the day. The Spurs team total decreased from 114.75 to 113.75, while the Nets stayed at 119.25.
San Antonio’s found success against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 55.2% of their games. Brooklyn hasn’t been as successful, covering in only 50.7% of theirs. The Nets have been slightly worse at home, where they own a 16-17 ATS record. The Spurs have traveled well, posting a league-best 22-11-1 road ATS record this season.
Brooklyn’s been one of the top over teams in terms of the total, hitting it in 55.1% of their games this season. San Antonio leans slightly toward the under, finding it in 51.5% of their contests. At home, the Nets have recorded an 18-15 over/under record. The Spurs are neutral on the road, posting a 17-17 road over/under record this season.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Lonnie Walker’s assist total is set at 1.5 tonight. He boasts a Karma Projection of 2.3, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Walker’s averaging 1.6 assists in 25.2 minutes per game through 56 contests this season. He’s also averaging 1.7 assists in 27.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Overall, Walker’s posted 2+ assists in 3 of his last 6 games, including a game with 5 assists.
Walker’s minutes have been a bit inconsistent in recent games, although he’s expected to play 30+ minutes with Derrick White out tonight. He’s seen his role in the offense increase, and he posted 4 assists in his only game against Brooklyn this season. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor likes the over in such a good matchup.
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