MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/13)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Chicago White Sox opened as -139 home favorites against the Minnesota Twins. The line shifted slightly, as Chicago is now a -141 favorite. Similarly, the game total opened at 7.5 runs, staying put at this point. The Twins boast a team total of 3.4 runs, while the White Sox boast a 4.4 team total today.
Chicago’s found success in terms of the run line this season, covering in 55.9% of their games. Minnesota hasn’t performed as well, covering in a league-low 29.4% of their contests thus far. The White Sox have found similar success at home, where they own a 9-8 run line record. The Twins are slightly better on the road, posting a 6-11 road run line record.
Minnesota’s consistently found the over in their games this season, hitting it in 63.6% of their games. Chicago’s been neutral, though, finding the over in 50% of their contests this season. The White Sox lean slightly toward the under at home, where they’ve recorded an 8-9 over/under record. The Twins lead the MLB with a 12-4-1 road over/under record in 2021.
Our Prop Predictor likes a few bets in this game. Tim Anderson’s hit total is set at 0.5 today with significant juice on the over. With that being said, he owns a Karma Projection of 1.29 hits, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Anderson’s been performing at an elite level this season, hitting for a .317 average through 24 games. He’s posted 33 hits in those contests. Anderson’s also been playing well recently, hitting for a .311 average over his last 10 games. He’s recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, including his currently 7-game hit streak.
Anderson gets a tough matchup against Michael Pineda tonight. Pineda’s holding right-handed batters to a .175 average early this season, although he’s due for some regression in that area. Anderson is leading off for Chicago, giving him ample opportunities to hit the over today.
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