MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/14)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Boston Red Sox opened as -124 home favorites against the Los Angeles Angels. The line shifted ever so slightly thus far, as the Red Sox are now -127 favorites. The game total opened at 9.5 runs. It hasn’t moved yet, but there is juice on the over at this point. The Angels own an implied team total of 4.6, while the Red Sox boast an implied team total of 5.3.
Boston’s been one of the best teams in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering it in 59% of their games thus far. Los Angeles has been on the other side of success, covering it in only 41.7% of their contests. Surprisingly, the Red Sox have struggled at home, where they own an 11-11 run line record. With that being said, the Angels enter this game with an 8-11 road run line record.
Los Angeles owns one of the highest over percentages (58.3%) in the MLB this season. Boston leans toward the under, hitting it in 52.6% of their games thus far. The Red Sox have found more offensive success at home, where they boast a 12-9-1 over/under record this season. The Angels bring a 10-9 road over/under record into this game, as well.
This game features several bets that our Prop Predictor likes. David Fletcher’s hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice to the over. He boasts a Karma Projection of 1.25 hits, giving the over a B+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Fletcher’s seen mixed results this season, hitting for a .263 average through 35 games. He boasts 40 hits in those 35 games. Fletcher’s also recorded a .262 average over his last 10 games, posting 11 hits over that span. Overall, he’s posted at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games.
Fletcher gets a matchup against Nick Pivetta, who’s held right-handed batters to a .191 average this season. With that being said, he’s due for regression as the season progresses. Fletcher will be leading off for a solid offense in a hitter-friendly stadium. It’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor prefers the over on this bet.
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