MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/17)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Chicago Cubs opened as -121 home favorites against the Washington Nationals. The lines moved drastically toward Chicago, as they are now -152 favorites. The game total opened at 9 runs, dropping to 8 throughout the day. The Nationals team total decreased from 4.4 to 3.5, while the Cubs dipped from 4.9 to 4.8.
Both teams have struggled at times in terms of the run line. Chicago’s covered the run line in 51.3% of their games thus far, while Washington’s covered it in only 47.2% of their contests. The Cubs have been slightly worse at home, where they own a 10-11 run line record this season. The Nationals have also found more success on the road, boasting a 10-7 road run line record thus far.
Each team favors the under in their games, as well. Washington’s hit the under in a league-high 67.7% of their games, while Chicago’s found it in 54% of theirs. At home, the Cubs own a 9-12 over/under record. The Nationals enter this game with a 6-9-2 road over/under record this season.
Our Prop Predictor likes a few bets in this game, although one stands above the rest. Trea Turner’s hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He boasts a Karma Projection of 1.28 hits, though, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Turner’s looked outstanding this season, posting a .329 average thus far. He’s recorded 48 hits over 36 games. Turner’s also found success in recent games, posting a .364 average with 16 hits over his last 10 games. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 8 of his last 10 games, including 7 hits over his last 3 games.
Turner gets an interesting matchup against Adbert Alzolay. Alzolaay’s held right-handed batters to a .148 average this season, and his advanced metrics back up his success against righties. With that being said, his BABIP is a bit low, suggesting he could see some regression in terms of hits. Turner will lead off for Washington, making him a great option to record a hit in this game.
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