MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/18)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Toronto Blue Jays opened as -143 home favorites against the Boston Red Sox. The line shifted slightly toward Boston, as Toronto is now a -139 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Red Sox team total increased from 4 to 4.1, while the Blue Jays decreased from 5.3 to 5.2.
Both teams have found run line success this season. Boston’s covered it in 57.1% of their games, while Toronto’s covered it in 56.4% of theirs. The Blue Jays boast a league-best 9-5 home run line record this season. The Red Sox are one of the best road teams in the MLB, posting a 12-5 road run line record.
Surprisingly, these teams have found the under more often than not in 2021. Boston’s hit it in 55.3% of their contests, while Toronto’s found it in 55.3% of theirs. With that being said, the Blue Jays own a 7-6-1 home over/under record. The Red Sox enter this game with a 6-11 road over/under this season.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Xander Bogaerts’ hit total is set at 0.5 with extra juice on the over. He owns a 1.18 Karma Projection, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bogaerts has looked elite this season, recording a .344 average for Boston. He boasts 52 hits in 40 games thus far. Bogaerts has been playing well recently, as well, posting a .303 average with 10 hits over his last 10 games. Surprisingly, he’s posted at least 1 hit in only 5 of those 10 games.
Bogaerts gets an interesting matchup against Hyun Jin Ryu. He’s better against left-handed pitching, although Ryu’s found plenty of success this season. With that being said, Ryu’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .260 average thus far, making Bogaerts one of our Prop Predictors favorite bets of the game.
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