MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/19)

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners

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The Seattle Mariners opened as -136 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers. The line shifted toward Seattle, as they’re now -152 favorites. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 8 throughout the day. The Tigers team total decreased from 4 to 3.6, while the Mariners team total dipped from 4.9 to 4.8. 

 

These teams are opposites in terms of the run line this season. Seattle’s covered the run line in 60.5% of their games, while Detroit’s covered it in only 42.9% of theirs thus far. The Mariners have found success at home, as well, where they boast a 14-9 run line record this season. The Tigers’ struggles continue on the road, as they own an 8-13 road run line record thus far. 

 

Seattle’s relatively neutral in terms of the game total, hitting the over in 51.2% of their games. Detroit finds the under more often than not, hitting it in 58.5% of their contests. The Mariners aren’t as neutral at home, as they own a 9-13-1 home over/under record this season. On the road, the Tigers have posted a 10-11 over/under record in 2021. 

 

This game features one prop that sticks out to our Prop Predictor. Tarik Skubal’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 4.95, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here. 

 

Skubal’s struggled quite a bit this season, and his strikeout rate dipped from 27.6% in 2020 to 20.4% this season. He’s recorded 31 strikeouts through 33 innings over 8 games (6 starts). He’s posted 6 or fewer strikeouts in 7 of his 8 games, as well. 

 

Skubal gets an interesting matchup tonight. The Seattle Mariners feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB, although Skubal could struggle to find strikeouts in this game. He isn’t likely to throw deep into this game, and he’s our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the contest. 

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