MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/21)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Colorado Rockies opened as -143 home favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The lines widened throughout the day, as Colorado is now a -157 favorite. The game total opened at 11 runs, increasing to 11.5 thus far. The Diamondbacks team total sits at 4.9, while the Rockies team total increased from 6.5 to 7.
Arizona’s found success in terms of the run line this season. They’ve covered it in 53.3% of their games, while Colorado’s covered it in only 47.7% of theirs. With that being said, the Rockies boast the best home run line record in the MLB at 16-9. The Diamondbacks enter this game with a 14-13 road run line record.
Arizona’s neutral in terms of the game total, hitting the over in 51.1% of their games this season. Colorado leans slightly more toward the over, finding it in 52.4% of their contests. The Rockies bring a 13-10-2 home over/under record into this game. The Diamondbacks only own a 12-15 over/under record on the road, though.
This game features several solid props, according to our Prop Predictor. German Marquez’s strikeout total is set at 4.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 5.76, though. The difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Marquez has seen mixed results throughout the season, posting a 23.2% strikeout rate through 9 starts. He’s recorded 48 strikeouts over 45.1 innings in 2021. Overall, he’s recorded 5+ strikeouts in 7 of his 9 games this season.
Marquez gets a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They don’t have an overly dominant offense, but they also don’t strike out at the highest rate. With that being said, he’s an outstanding pitcher that’s getting a bump down from throwing in Coors. The over on his strikeouts is our Prop Predictors favorite bet in this game.
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