MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/22)

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals

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The Chicago Cubs opened as small -109 road favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals. The lines widened slightly throughout the day, as Chicago is now a -115 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Cubs team total increased from 4.4 to 4.5, while the Cardinals team total decreased from 4.4 to 4.3. 

 

Both teams have found success in terms of the run line this season. St. Louis has covered it in 61.4% of their games, while Chicago’s covered it in 56.8% of theirs. The Cardinals have been slightly worse at home, although they do own a 13-10 home run line record this season. The Cubs bring an 11-8 road run line record into this game. 

 

These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. St. Louis has found the over in 52.5% of their games this season, while Chicago’s hit the under in 53.7% of theirs. At home, the Cardinals only own a 10-11-1 over/under record. The Cubs enter this game with a 9-8-2 over/under record. 

 

Our Prop Predictor likes a few props in this game. Paul Goldschmidt’s hit total is set at  0.5 with wide odds on the over. He owns a 1.06 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here. 

 

Goldschmidt’s seen mixed results early this season, hitting for a .246 average through 41 games. He does own 41 hits in those games, though. Goldschmidt’s also been heating up recently, posting a .275 average with 11 hits over his last 10 games. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 9 of his last 10 games. 

 

Goldschmidt gets an interesting matchup against Adbert Alzolay tonight. Alzolay’s performed well this season, holding right-handed batters to a .154 average thus far. With that being said, Goldschmidt’s been on fire in recent games, and his over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game. 

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