MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/24)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New York Mets opened as -127 home favorites against the Colorado Rockies. The lines shifted further toward New York, as they are now -139 favorites. The game total opened at 7.5 runs, dropping to 6.5 throughout the day. The Rockies team total decreased from 3.6 to 3, while the Mets dipped from 4.2 to 3.8.
Both teams have struggled in terms of the run line this season. Colorado’s covered it in only 48.9% of their games, while New York’s covered it in only 45% of theirs. The Mets have struggled at home, where they own a 7-8 run line record. The Rockies are the worst team in the MLB on the road, though, recording a 5-14 road run line record this season.
Colorado is relatively neutral in terms of the game total, hitting the over in 51.1% of their games. New York’s found the under in 56.8% of their contests in 2021. At home, the Mets own a 3-11-1 over/under record, hitting the under in a league-high 78.6% of their games. The Rockies enter this game with a 9-10 road over/under record.
This game features one elite bet, according to our Prop Predictor. Austin Gomber’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 tonight. He owns a 5.05 Karma Projection, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Gomber’s performed better this season, recording 24% strikeout and 9.6% swinging-strike rates. He’s posted 47 strikeouts over 45.1 innings through 9 starts. Overall, he’s recorded fewer than 7 strikeouts in 6 of his 9 games.
Gomber gets a great matchup against a depleted New York Mets offense. Even though their offense has been held in check in recent games, they don’t necessarily strike out at the highest rate. Gomber could find success in this matchup, but the under on his strikeouts in our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game.
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