MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/25)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Atlanta Braves opened as -118 road favorites against the Boston Red Sox. The line shifted slightly toward Boston, as Atlanta is now only a -112 favorite. The game total opened at 9.5 runs, increasing to 10 throughout the day. The Braves team total moved from 5.1 to 5.3, while the Red Sox team total jumped from 4.8 to 5.2.
Boston’s found success in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 56.2% of their games. Atlanta’s struggled significantly more, covering the run line in only 38.3% of their contests. The Red Sox have struggled at home, where they boast a 12-13 run line record. The Braves are a better team on the road, posting an 11-9 run line record this season.
Atlanta’s found the over more often than not, hitting it in 55.6% of their games. Boston’s a more neutral team, finding the under in 51.1% of their contests in 2021. The Red Sox do enter this game with a 13-11-1 home over/under record. Surprisingly, the Braves bring an 8-12 road over/under record into this game.
There are a few solid bets in this contest, according to our Prop Predictor. Xander Bogaerts’ hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He boasts a 1.13 Karma Projection, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bogaerts has found tremendous success this season, hitting for a .345 average. He owns 59 hits in 45 games thus far. Bogaerts has also caught fire in recent games, posting a .361 average with 13 hits over his last 10 games. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 8 of those 10 games.
Bogaerts gets an interesting matchup against Charlie Morton tonight. Morton’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .274 average this season. The wind’s blowing out, and Bogaerts should see plenty of the Atlanta bullpen tonight. The over on his hit total is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of this game.
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