MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/26)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened at -139 road favorites against the Houston Astros. The line shifted slightly toward Los Angeles, as they are now -143 favorites. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Dodgers team total increased from 4.9 to 5, while the Astros is stuck at 3.9.
Los Angeles has been neutral in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 50% of their games. Houston’s been slightly less successful, covering the run line in only 47.9% of their contests. The Astros have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 12-13 run line record. The Dodgers have been one of the worst teams in the MLB on the road, though, posting an 11-15 road run line record.
Both of these teams have found the over more often than not. Los Angeles’ hit it in 53.2% of their games, while Houston’s found the over in 65.2% of theirs. The Astros enter this game with a 15-10 home over/under record. The Dodgers bring a 14-12 road over/under record into this game, as well.
There are a few props our Prop Predictor likes in this game with one standing above the rest. Luis Garcia’s strikeout total is set at 4.5 tonight. He owns a 3.57 Karma Projection, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Garcia’s found plenty of strikeout success this season, recording 28.7% strikeout and 12.5% swinging-strike rates through 9 games (7 starts). Overall, he posted 47 strikeouts over 40 innings. He’s recorded fewer than 5 strikeouts in only 2 of his 9 games.
With that being said, Garcia gets a tough matchup against Los Angeles. They don’t strike out at a high clip and could find early success against Garcia. Although risky, his under is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of this game.
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