MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/27)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The St. Louis Cardinals opened as -127 road favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The line shifted significantly toward Arizona throughout the day, as this game is essentially a pick ‘em now. The game total opened at 9.5 and hasn’t moved thus far. The Cardinals team total dipped from 5.3 to 4.9, while the Diamondbacks increased from 4.6 to 4.9.
St. Louis has been one of the best teams in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering it in 59.2% of their games this season. Arizona’s found some success, covering the run line in 52% of their contests. The Diamondbacks have been slightly better on the road, posting an 11-9 run line record. The Cardinals have been successful on the road, though, where they own a 15-9 run line record in 2021.
Both of these teams lean slightly toward the under in their games. St. Louis has hit the under in 51.1% of their games, while Arizona’s found it in 51% of theirs. With that being said, the Diamondbacks boast an 11-8-1 home over/under record on the season. The Cardinals lean toward the over on the road, as well, recording a 12-10-2 over/under record.
Our Prop Predictor loves a few bets in this game. Carlos Martinez’s strikeout total is set at only 3.5 tonight. He owns a 4.49 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Martinez has struggled with strikeouts this season, posting 12.1% strikeout and 7.6% swinging-strike rates through 8 starts. He owns only 24 strikeouts through 47.1 innings this season. Overall, he’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 3 of his 8 starts.
This is an interesting matchup for Martinez, as Arizona doesn’t strike out at an overly high rate. With that being said, Martinez could find success a pitch deep into this game. He boasts more strikeout upside than he’s shown early this season, making his over our Prop Predictors’ favorite bet of the game.
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