Joey's NBA Playoff Props Friday 05/28/2021

What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my prop bets. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite prop bet of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets, make sure to sign up for the Premium package.

 

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NBA Record:

 

Season: 107-103 +6.00 Units

 

Playoff Free Plays: 2-2 -0.10 Units

 

All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.

 

Danilo Gallinari Over 1.5 3 Pointers -106 1.06 units to win 1 unit: I love the value of this play. Gallinari has been a spark-plug off the bench all season. He is averaging 13.5 points per game in 24 minutes. More importantly, he is also averaging 2.1 3s made on 5.2 attempts per game, in 46 games with Trae Young this season. If we remove the games where he played fewer than 20 minutes, he is averaging 14.9 PPG, 26.4 MPG, while averaging 2.4 3s made on 5.5 attempts. Those are important numbers to look at when checking props. You want to remove the games where a player barely plays because obviously if the minutes are not there he won't go over unless you have some luck. That is part of removing the noise from stats. Something I love to look at when digging into 3 point props is volume. Previously, before the playoffs started, he took a backseat for volume. In the last 5 games of the regular season, he had fewer than five attempts. This is probably one of the main reasons why we are getting the value of these plays. I'm sure you can guess which game he went over on and which four games he went under on; the game he shot seven 3s. 

Since the playoffs have begun, he has seen a huge increase in volume. In these first two games, he has seven attempts and nine attempts. Volume like that makes me love this play. Clearly, they are relying on the vet to score when the bench unit is in. He is due for an explosion of 3-4 3s made soon. He has shot 14.3% and 22% in his first two games. Those would be two of his worst % in a game where he made a 3 this season. In his 13 games where he has at least seven attempts, he has gone over this total in all but two games. Gallinari is tied for 5th in wide-open 3 point attempts per game this playoffs. Every 3 he has made these playoffs is from wide-open shots. He is due for regression across the board.