MLB Trends and Line Movement (5/28)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Colorado Rockies opened as -118 road favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The line shifted slightly toward Pittsburgh, as Colorado is now only a -112 favorite. The game total opened at 7.5 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Rockies team total decreased from 4.1 to 4, while the Pirates team total increased from 3.7 to 3.8.
Both of these teams have struggled in terms of the run line this season. Colorado’s covered it in 49% of their games, while Pittsburgh’s covered the run line in only 42.9% of their contests. The Pirates have struggled even more at home, posting an 8-14 run line record. The Rockies are the worst team in the MLB on the road, though, recording a 7-16 road run line record this season.
Colorado’s been neutral with the game total, hitting the over and under each 50% of the time. Pittsburgh leans toward the under, finding it in 54.4% of their games this season. At home, the Pirates lean slightly toward the over, posting an 11-10-1 over/under record. The Rockies are opposites on the road, recording a 10-12 road over/under record in 2021.
This game features one bet that stands above the rest, according to our Prop Predictor. Adam Frazier’s hit total is set at 0.5. He boasts a Karma Projection of 1.16, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Frazier’s performed extremely well this season, posting a .332 average thus far. He’s recorded 64 hits in only 48 games. Frazier’s caught fire in recent games, posting a .385 average with 15 hits over his last 10 games. Overall, he’s posted at least 1 hit in 11 of his last 12 games.
Frazier gets a plus matchup against Jon Gray tonight. Gray’s allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .223 average, but he’s due for regression. Frazier hits at the top of the Pittsburgh lineup, and he’s an extremely consistent option.
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