MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/1)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Los Angeles Dodgers opened at -195 home favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals. The line’s shifted toward the home team, as Los Angeles is now a -220 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs but hasn’t shifted thus far. The Cardinals team total dipped from 3.2 to 3, while the Cardinals team total increased from 5.6 to 5.8.
St. Louis has found plenty of success in terms of the run line, covering it in 57.4% of their games this season. Los Angeles hasn’t been as successful, covering it in only 46.3% of their contests. The Dodgers have been better at home, where they own a 14-13 run line record in 2021. The Cardinals have found plenty of success on the road, though, as they bring a 17-12 road run line record into this game.
Both of these teams have found the over more often than not in their games. Los Angeles’ hit it in 54.7% of their games, while St. Louis’ found it in 52% of theirs. The Dodgers’ offense has found more success at home, posting a 15-11-1 over/under record in LA this season. The Cardinals enter this game with a 16-11-2 road over/under record.
This game features a few bets that our Prop Predictor likes with one standing above the rest. John Gant’s strikeout total is set at 3.5 tonight. He boasts a Karma Projection of 4.95, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Gant’s performed well this season, although he’s due for tons of regression. He enters this game with 17.4% strikeout and 9.2% swinging-strike rates. Gant’s also posted 35 strikeouts through 44.2 innings over 9 starts. Overall, he’s posted 4+ strikeouts in 6 of those 9 games.
Gant gets a tough matchup against Los Angeles, although the Dodgers have flashed strikeout potential throughout the season. His strikeout total is set extremely low, making the over our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the contest.
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