MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/2)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Toronto Blue Jays opened as -155 home favorites against the Miami Marlins. The line’s shifted toward Toronto, as they’re now -167 favorites. The game total opened at 8 runs but hasn’t moved thus far. The Marlins team total dipped from 3.4 to 3.3, while the Blue Jays team total increased from 4.9 to 5.
These teams have been identical in terms of the run line so far this season. Miami and Toronto have both covered the run line in 52.8% of their games. The Blue Jays have been neutral at home, though, possessing an 11-11 home run line record. The Marlins have performed well on the road, where they boast a 16-13 run line record in 2021.
Both of these teams have found the under more often than not this season. Toronto’s hit the under in 51.9% of their games, while Miami’s found it in 58% of their contests. The Blue Jays boast a 12-9-1 home over/under record in 2021. The Marlins enter this game with an 11-16-2 road over/under record, though. It’s also important to note that Toronto’s played the majority of their home games in Florida this season, but they have recently moved back up to Buffalo.
There are a few bets that our Prop Predictor likes in this game. Bo Bichette’s hit total is set at 0.5 with wide odds on the over. He owns a Karma Projection of 1.12 tonight, giving the over a B+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bichette’s found plenty of success this season, hitting for a .263 average thus far. He’s recorded 57 hits over 53 games in 2021. Bichette’s struggled over his last 10 games, though, posting a .200 average with 8 hits in those games. He owns at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games, though.
Bichette gets an interesting matchup against Pablo Lopez tonight. He’s held right-handed batters to a .206 average this season, but he’s given up a .304 average on the road. Bichette will hit near the top of Toronto’s lineup, giving him ample opportunities to find a hit in this game.
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