MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/9)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Detroit Tigers opened as -132 home favorites against the Seattle Mariners. The line shifted slightly toward Detroit, as they’re now -136 favorites. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, increasing to 9 throughout the day. The Mariners team total moved from 4 to 4.2, while the Tigers’ jumped from 4.8 to 5.2.
Seattle’s been one of the better teams in the MLB in terms of the run line, covering it in 54.8% of their games. Detroit hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in 50% of their contests this season. The Tigers are slightly better at home, though, where they own a 15-14 run line record. With that being said, the Mariners boast a 17-14 road run line record in 2021.
Both of these teams have found the under more often than not this season. Seattle’s found it in 50.8% of their games, while Detroit’s hit the under in 61.4% of their contests. The Tigers enter this game with a ridiculous 8-19-2 home over/under record. The Mariners are opposites, though, bringing an 18-12-1 road over/under record into this contest.
There are a few bets our Prop Predictor likes in this game, although one stands above the rest. Casey Mize’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 tonight. He owns a 4.46 Karma Projection, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Mize hasn’t been a dominant strikeout option this season. He enters this game with 20.4% strikeout and 10.2% swinging-strike rates in 2021. Mize owns 53 strikeouts over 64.2 innings through 11 starts. He’s posted fewer than 6 strikeouts in 6 of those 11 games.
Mize gets a great matchup against Seattle. They strike out at a high rate and feature one of the worst offenses in the MLB. With that being said, Mize is still early in his career and generally hasn’t thrown deep into games. He certainly comes with upside, but the under is out Prop Predictors’ favorite bet in this contest.
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