MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/16)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Cleveland Indians opened as -159 home favorites against the Baltimore Orioles. The line’s widened slightly, as they’re now -167 favorites. The game total opened at 8 runs, dropping to 7.5 throughout the day. The Orioles team total dipped from 3.4 to 3.1, while the Indians team total decreased from 4.9 to 4.7.
Cleveland’s found slight success in terms of the run line, covering it in 51.6% of their games. Baltimore hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 43.9% of their contests this season. The Indians have struggled at home, where they own a 14-17 run line record. The Orioles enter this game with only a 16-18 road run line record, though.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Cleveland’s found the over in 56.5% of their games, while Baltimore’s found the under in 51.6% of theirs. The Indians boast a 17-13-1 home over/under record in 2021. With that being said, the Orioles bring a near league-low 13-20-1 road over/under record into this game.
Our Prop Predictor likes a few bets in this contest. Amed Rosario owns a hit total of 0.5 with wide odds on the over. He boasts a 1.12 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Rosario’s enjoyed a solid season thus far, posting a .284 average. He owns 57 hits through 57 games, as well. Rosario’s been playing at an elite level, though, posting a .395 average with 17 hits over his last 10 games. Overall, he’s posted 1+ hits in 8 of his last 10 games.
Rosario gets an interesting matchup against Keegan Akin tonight. Akin’s seen mixed results this season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .258 average. Rosario continues to be one of the more consistent options at the plate in recent games, and his over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game.
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