MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/17)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Houston Astros opened as -130 home favorites against the Chicago White Sox. The line’s shifted slightly toward Chicago, as Houston is now a -124 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The White Sox team total increased from 4.2 to 4.4, while the Astros team total decreased from 5.1 to 5.
Both of these teams have found success in terms of the run line this season. Chicago’s covered the run line in 57.4% of their games, while Houston’s covered it in 52.2% of theirs. The Astros have been slightly worse at home, where they own an 18-17 run line record in 2021. The White Sox enters this game with a 17-12 road run line record.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Houston’s found the over in 61.5% of their contests, while Chicago’s hit the under in 57.6% of theirs. The Astros boast a 21-14 home over/under record in 2021. The White Sox quietly bring a 15-14 road over/under record into this game, as well.
This game features multiple bets that our Prop Predictor loves. Jose Urquidy’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 tonight. He boasts a 4.13 Karma Projection, giving the under an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Urquidy’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts this season, posting 22.3% strikeout and 11.4% swinging-strike rates. He’s posted 55 strikeouts over 62 innings through 11 starts. Urquidy’s strikeouts have been a bit boom or bust recently, though. He’s posted fewer than 6 strikeouts in 6 of his last 8 games, finding 8 and 9 strikeouts when he’s gone over.
Urquidy gets a tough matchup against Chicago, which features one of the top offenses in the MLB. They utilize more right-handed batters than lefties, and Urquidy’s strikeout rate dips to only 19.6% against righties this season. This is a tough matchup, making it easy to see why the under is our Prop Predictors favorite bet in the game.
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