Joey's NBA Playoff Props Thursday 06/17/2021
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Season: 140-131 +7.39 Units
Regular Season: 119-114 +5.47 Units
Playoffs: 21-17 +1.92 Units
Playoff Free Plays: 10-5 +4.70 Units
Last 10 Bets: 7-3 +3.5 Units
Last 15 Bets: 11-4 +6.4 Units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
James Harden Over 30.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists -120 1.20 units to win 1 unit: Brooklyn finds themselves up 3-2 in the series. When some seemed to be writing off the Nets after the Kyrie injury. Kevin Durant and Jeff Green said hold my beer and took control of game five to secure the lead in the series. After being ruled out the day before, James Harden was able to start and play 45 minutes on a hurt hamstring. He clearly was not 100% but was able to put together a decent role player's stat line; 5 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists.
Even though Harden's scoring numbers were down last game, he was able to do enough on the glass and distribution to hop on this play tonight. 30.5 PRA is probably the lowest number you will see from him the remainder of the playoffs as people are wary of his injury. Playing 45 minutes last game demonstrates enough confidence in Harden to either play through the injury or is healthy enough to reach this over.
Harden averaged 40 PRA a game during the regular season and 45 PRA in the first series against the Celtics. Eclipsing this total in every one of those games. Although, showing season stats does not help our research tonight but does show the potential upside Harden provides say he is fully healthy. Then we can adjust percentage-wise depending on how healthy we think he is. In 45 minutes last game, he was 1-10 shooting with a 16.6% usage rate. This low usage rate was common this season when Harden was returning from injury with all the studs on their team. We saw two sub 10% usage rate games this season as he deferred to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant when returning from his injury. I expect that usage rate to skyrocket tonight as he gets healthier and healthier. Expect the minutes to stay high as well as they look to close out this series in Milwaukee tonight.