MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/18)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New York Mets and Washington Nationals essentially opened as a pick ‘em today. There’s been significant movement toward Washington, as they’re now -127 home favorites. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, increasing to 9 throughout the day. The Mets team total decreased from 4.4 to 4.3, while the Nationals team total jumped from 4.4 to 5.
Both of these teams have struggled in terms of the run line this season. New York’s covered it in 47.5% of their games, while Washington’s covered the run line in 43.1% of their contests this season. The Nationals have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 15-20 run line record. The Mets enter this game with a 16-18 road run line record in 2021.
Each team leans toward the under. New York’s hit the under in 52.6% of their games, while Washington’s found the under in a league-high 69.3% of their contests. The Nationals also own a league-leading 9-26 home over/under record. With that being said, the Mets bring a 20-12-1 road over/under record into this game.
Our Prop Predictors likes a few bets in this game. Dominic Smith’s hit total is set at 0.5 with significant juice on the over. He boasts a 1.05 Karma Projection, though, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Smith’s been enjoying a solid season, posting a .245 average thus far. He’s recorded 49 hits over 57 games. Smith’s been struggling recently, recording a .171 average with 6 hits over his last 10 games. He’s recorded at least 1 hit in 5 of his last 10 games, although he’s posted a hit in 3 of his last 4 contests.
Smith gets a great matchup against Erick Fedde, who’s taken a major step forward this season. With that being said, he’s allowing left-handed batters to post a .244 average thus far. Smith’s expected to hit fourth in the Mets lineup, giving him ample opportunities to record a hit.
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