MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/21)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Houston Astros opened as -162 road favorites against the Baltimore Orioles. The line’s widened throughout the day, as Houston’s now a -177 favorite. The game total opened at 10 runs, increasing to 10.5 throughout the day. The Astros team total increased from 6.2 to 6.7, while the Orioles team total has held steady at 4.2.
Houston’s found quite a bit of success in terms of the run line, covering it in 54.9% of their games. Baltimore hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 43.7% of their contests. The Orioles have struggled at home, as well, where they own a 14-21 run line record. The Astros enter this game with a 17-15 road run line record this season.
Houston ranks second in the MLB, hitting the over in 62.3% of their games in 2021. Baltimore’s found the over in 50.7% of their contests, as well. At home, the Orioles lean more toward the over, posting a 20-14-1 home over/under record this season. The Astros bring a 19-11-2 road over/under record into this game tonight.
There are a few solid bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Ryan Mountcastle’s hit total is set at 0.5 with heavy juice on the over. He boasts a 1.06 Karma Projection tonight, giving the over a B Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Mountcastle’s enjoyed a successful season thus far, recording a .265 average. He owns 63 hits through 64 games. Mountcastle’s also caught fire in recent games, posting a .333 average with 13 hits over his last 10 games. He boasts at least 1 hit in 7 of his last 10 games, including each of his last 6.
Mountcastle gets an interesting matchup against Jake Odorizzi tonight. The Houston pitcher’s struggled so far, although he’s due for positive regression. Overall, Odorizzi’s held right-handed batters to a .204 average in limited innings. Mountcastle will be playing at home, where he owns a .331 average this season, and our Prop Predictor favors him in this matchup.
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