MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/22)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Milwaukee Brewers opened as -155 road favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The lines inched closer throughout the day, as Milwaukee’s currently a -148 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 7.5 throughout the day. The Brewers team total decreased from 5.2 to 4.5, while the Diamondbacks team total dipped from 3.7 to 3.3.
Milwaukee’s found success in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 53.4% of their games thus far. Arizona hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 47.3% of their games. With that being said, the Diamondbacks boast a 19-15 home run line record this season. The Brewers bring a 21-14 road run line record into this game, though.
Milwaukee’s been relatively neutral in terms of the game total, hitting the over in 50.7% of their games in 2021. Arizona leans more heavily toward the over, finding it in 54.8% of their contests. The Diamondbacks have also posted a 22-11-1 home over/under record this season. With that being said, the Brewers enter this game with a 15-19-1 road over/under record.
This game offers a few solid bets, according to our Prop Predictor. Zac Gallen’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 tonight. He boasts a 6.66 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Gallen’s been enjoying a solid season, posting 27.1% strikeout and 10.6% swinging-strike rates. He owns a 10.74 K/9 in 2021. Gallen’s posted 35 strikeouts over 29.1 innings through 6 starts. Overall, he’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in 4 of his 6 games.
Gallen gets a great matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who strike out at one of the higher rates on the slate. They do come with upside, although the total dropping suggests this game could become a battle between the pitchers. Overall, his over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet in this game.
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