MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/23)

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees

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The New York Yankees opened as -155 home favorites against the Kansas City Royals. The odds have widened, as New York is now a -177 favorite. The game total opened at 9.5 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Royals team total dipped from 4.1 to 3.9, while the Yankees team total increased from 5.8 to 6.1. 

 

Kansas City’s found some run line success this season, covering it in 52.1% of their games. New York hasn’t been nearly as successful, covering the run line in only 38.9% of their contests. The Yankees feature one of the worst home run line records in the MLB at 13-24. The Royals, on the other hand, have found plenty of success on the road, recording a 20-14 road run line record. 

 

These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Kansas City’s hit the over in 52.2% of their games, while New York’s found the under in 56.3% of theirs. The Yankees enter this game with a 15-21-1 home over/under record. The Royals also bring a 14-18-2 road over/under record into this game. 

 

This game features a pair of solid bets with one standing above the other. Danny Duffy’s strikeout total is set at 6.5 tonight, but he owns a 4.23 Karma Projection. The difference gives the under an A+ Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here. 

 

Duffy’s found plenty of strikeout success, recording 28.2% strikeout and 14.2% swinging-strike rates this season. He owns a career-high 10.37 K/9 thus far. Duffy boasts 48 strikeouts through 41.2 innings over 7 starts. He’s posted fewer than 7 strikeouts in 3 of his 7 games. 

 

Duffy gets a tough matchup against New York tonight. Although there are strikeouts in their lineup, Duffy’s strikeout rate dips to 26.5% against right-handed batters. I expect his strikeout rate to dip a bit as he throws more innings, and his under is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game tonight. 

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