MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/24)

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins

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The Minnesota Twins opened as -175 home favorites against the Cleveland Indians. The odds have widened, as Minnesota’s now a -190 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs and hasn’t moved throughout the day. The Indians team total dropped from 3.7 to 3.5, while the Twins team total increased from 5.7 to 5.9. 

 

Cleveland hasn’t been overly successful in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 50.7% of their games. Minnesota’s covered the run line in a league-low 35.6% of their contests in 2021. The Twins have struggled at home, as well, possessing a league-low 11-26 home run line record. The Indians enter this game with a 21-17 road run line record. 

 

Both of these teams lean heavily toward the over in their games. Cleveland’s found the over in 56.5% of their games, while Minnesota’s hit it in a league-high 65.7% of theirs. The Twins also boast a 23-13-1 home over/under record thus far. The Indians also bring a 20-17-1 road over/under record into this game. 

 

This game features a few solid bets with one sticking out above the rest to our Prop Predictor. J.C. Mejia’s strikeout total is set at 3.5 tonight. He owns a 4.26 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here. 

 

Mejia’s seen mixed results this season, posting 22.9% strikeout and 10.1% swinging-strike rates. He enters this game with an 8.15 K/9, although his strikeout rate dipped to 16.7% in his starts. Overall, Mejia’s posted 16 strikeouts over 17.2 innings through 7 games (4 starts). He’s recorded 4 or more strikeouts in only 1 of his 7 games this season. 

 

Mejia gets a solid matchup against Minnesota tonight. The Twins have plenty of strikeouts in their lineup, and Mejia posted 5 strikeouts in 2.1 innings in their only matchup this season. He’s a pitcher that’s throwing deeper into games as he gets stretched out, making his over our Prop Predictors favorite bet of the game. 

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