MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/25)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The San Diego Padres opened as -278 home favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The line’s widened throughout the day, as San Diego is now a -315 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t moved thus far. The Diamondbacks team total dipped from 2.6 to 2.4, while the Padres team total increased from 6.3 to 6.5.
San Diego’s found some success in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 53.2% of their games. Arizona hasn’t been as successful, covering the run line in only 47.4% of their contests in 2021. The Padres boast a 22-20 home run line record thus far. The Diamondbacks enter this game with a 16-24 road run line record.
Both of these teams have found the over more often than not. Arizona’s hit it in 53.3% of their contests this season, while San Diego’s found the over in 52.6% of their games. The Padres lean toward the under at home, though, recording a 19-23 home over/under record. The Diamondbacks also bring an 18-22 road over/under record into this game.
There are a few good bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. Corbin Martin’s strikeout total is set at 3.5 tonight. He boasts a 4.98 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Martin’s struggled in limited innings this season, recording 16.5% strikeout and 7.9% swinging-strike rates. He’s recorded a 7.47 K/9, which is the lowest of his career at any level. Through 4 games (2 starts), Martin’s recorded 13 strikeouts over 15.2 innings. He’s posted more than 3 strikeouts in only 1 game this season, although he’s only thrown more than 80 pitches twice.
Martin gets a tough matchup against San Diego. They boast tremendous upside throughout their lineup, although they also have plenty of strikeouts in their offense. Martin threw 96 pitches in his first start of the season before getting rocked by the San Francisco Giants in his second start. Assuming Martin doesn’t give up 5+ runs early, he should throw 5+ innings, giving him ample opportunities for strikeouts.
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