MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/29)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Washington Nationals opened as -112 home favorites against the Tampa Bay Rays. The line widened ever so slightly thus far, as Washington is now a -115 favorite. The game total opened at 9 runs, increasing to 9.5 throughout the day. The Rays team total moved from 4.6 to 4.8, while the Nationals jumped from 4.8 to 5.1.
Tampa Bay has been one of the best teams in the MLB, covering the run line in 58.2% of their games this season. Washington hasn’t been nearly as successful, covering it in only 44.7% of their contests. The Nationals have struggled at home, as well, where they own an 18-22 run line record in 2021. The Rays enter this game with a 27-13 road run line record.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Tampa Bay’s found the over in 57.9% of their games, while Washington’s hit the under in a league-high 67.1% of their contests. The Nationals also boast an 11-29 home over/under record this season. The Rays are complete opposites, bringing a 25-13-2 road over/under record into this game.
There are several bets out Prop Predictor likes in this game with one sticking out more than the rest. Joe Ross’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 tonight. He owns a 4.72 Karma Projection, giving the under an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Ross has seen a slight jump in strikeouts this season, posting a career-high 23.2% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.2% swinging-strike rate through 14 starts. He boasts an 8.84 K/9 this season. Overall, Ross owns 73 strikeouts over 74.1 innings. He’s posted fewer than 6 strikeouts in 10 of his 14 starts.
Ross gets a plus matchup for strikeouts, as Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the MLB in strikeout rate over the last two weeks. With that being said, they feature a high upside offense that can get to any pitcher early in games. Our Prop Predictor is siding with the Rays offense over Ross tonight.
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