MLB Trends and Line Movement (6/30)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Philadelphia Phillies opened as -210 home favorites against the Miami Marlins. The line’s widened throughout the day, as Philadelphia is now a -235 favorite. The game total opened at 8.5 runs, dropping to 8 thus far. Overall, the Marlins team total dipped from 3.1 to 2.7, while the Phillies team total decreased from 5.8 to 5.6.
These teams have been nearly identical in terms of the run line this season. Miami’s covered it in 50% of their games, while Philadelphia’s covered the run line in 50.6% of theirs. The Phillies have been slightly better at home, where they own a 19-17 run line record in 2021. The Marlins have been neutral on the road, posting a 21-21 run line record outside of Miami this season.
Both of these teams favor the under in their contests. Miami’s hit the under in 56.8% of their games, while Philadelphia’s found it in 51.95% of theirs. The Phillies are neutral at home, though, posting an 18-18 home over/under record this season. The Marlins enter this game with a 17-23-2 road over/under record in 2021.
This game features several bets that our Prop Predictor likes with one standing above the rest. Jordan Holloway’s strikeout total is set at only 3.5 tonight. He owns a 4.54 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Holloway’s performed well this season, posting 19.2% strikeout and 9.6% swinging-strike rates. He owns a 7.13 K/9 through 8 games (2 starts). Overall, Holloway owns 14 strikeouts in 17.2 innings. He has yet to post more than 3 strikeouts in any game this season, although he’s flashed plenty of strikeout upside in limited innings.
Holloway gets a matchup against Philadelphia. They feature a high upside offense, although they also strike out often. Holloway certainly comes with risk, as he hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games. With that being said, he should easily find the over if he can throw 5+ innings.
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