MLB Trends and Line Movement (7/1)

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook. 

 

In this article, I’ll break down the line movement from one game with a corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians

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The Houston Astros opened as -182 road favorites against the Cleveland Indians. The line’s shifted slightly throughout the day, as they are now -190 favorites. The game total opened at 9 runs, dropping to 8.5 thus far. The Astros team total dipped from 5.8 to 5.6, while the Indians team total decreased from 3.5 to 3.3. 

 

Houston’s found success in terms of the run line this season, covering it in 53.1% of their games. Cleveland’s been neutral, covering the run line in 50.6% of their contests in 2021. The Indians have struggled at home, where they’ve posted a 16-20 run line record. The Astros enter this game with a 21-18 road run line record. 

 

Both of these teams lean heavily toward the over in their games. Houston’s found the over in 60.8% of their games, while Cleveland’s hit the over in 58.1% of their contests. The Indians also own a 21-13-2 home over/under record this season. The Astros boast a 22-15-2 road over/under record in 2021, as well. 

 

Our Prop Predictor likes several bets in this game with one sticking out above the rest. J.C. Mejia’s strikeout rate is set at 3.5 tonight. He boasts a 4.17 Karma Projection, giving the over an A Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here. 

 

Mejia’s seen mixed results in terms of strikeouts this season, posting 23.7% strikeout and 9.4% swinging-strike rates this season. His strikeout rate dips to only 19.5% as a starter this season. Overall, Mejia owns 22 strikeouts through 23.2 innings over 8 games (5 starts). He’s only posted 4+ strikeouts in 1 game this season. 

 

Mejia’s been a reliever for quite a bit of this season, and he’s finally stretched out. He posted 6 strikeouts on 96 pitches over 6 innings in his last game. Mejia gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros, who feature one of the best offenses in the MLB. With that being said, he finally has a full pitch count, but his strikeout total doesn’t represent that. 

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